THE proposal to sell shares in Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, stunned the financial markets last year. Muhammad bin Salman, now Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, promised that it would be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) of all time, valuing Aramco at $2trn. It was to be the centrepiece of his plan to transform the Saudi economy, reducing its dependence on oil. It was meant to foster financial transparency and accountability in one of the world’s most hermetic kingdoms. Above all, it would cement the young prince’s image as a bold moderniser soon to inherit the throne.

2016年，全球最大的石油公司沙特阿美准备上市，震惊了金融市场。沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Muhammad bin Salman）曾承诺，这会是有史上最大的上市，阿美公司市值有2万亿美元。这将是他转变沙特经济计划的重中之重，目的是减少对石油的依赖。这意味着要在全世界最封闭的国家提高金融透明度和可信度。总之，这将增强这位即将继承王位的王子形象：一位勇敢地开启现代化的王室成员 。

Alas, youthful impatience appears to have got the better of him. His tendency to micromanage the IPO and vacillate over where Aramco should be listed has caused delay and confusion. Matters came to a head this week when advisers, speaking anonymously, and company executives doing the same, gave conflicting reports, suggesting a mutinous atmosphere.

可惜，年轻人的毛躁似乎占据了上风。他既想一手把控上市，同时又对阿美是否该上市犹豫不决，导致进程拖延和混乱。不愿透露姓名的人士表示，这种局面在本周达到了顶峰，公司高管也以同样的方式，提供了相互矛盾的报告，似乎有意反抗。

The kingdom’s advisers say privately that the decision to list in New York or London has been postponed, and that the plan “for now” is to issue shares on Riyadh’s puny Tadawul exchange, with a private placement possibly to Chinese investors. But Khalid al-Falih, the oil minister and Aramco’s chairman, insisted the IPO would go ahead at home and abroad next year as originally planned. Company officials scorn the idea of listing only on the Tadawul, which would be swamped by an Aramco IPO.

王室的顾问私下表示，在纽约或伦敦上市的决定推迟了，现在的计划是在沙特首都利雅得（Riyadh）的规模很小的沙特证券交易所（Tadawul exchange）发行股票，也可能会秘密地向中国投资者私募。不过，能源部长兼阿美公司董事长哈立德·法力赫（Khalid al-Falih）坚称，上市应按原计划在明年在国内和国外同时上市。该公司官员也对只在沙特证券交易所挂牌报价的说法不置一提，认为交易所会被阿美的上市所淹没。

The confusion appears to have originated from the royal palace. From the outset, MBS, as the crown prince is known, has insisted that the firm should be valued at no less than $2trn, and that the IPO should happen next year. He had not fully appreciated either the threat of lawsuits related to the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 that could result from listing on the New York Stock Exchange, or the complexities of issuing shares on the London Stock Exchange, where institutional investors are angry about efforts to water down listing rules for Aramco. He wrongly assumed that, given the huge fees promised to bankers and advisers, other actors in the world of finance would bend the knee.

这种混乱的根源在沙特皇室。从一开始，王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼就坚持阿美的估值不能低于2万亿美元，上市的时间应该在明年。对于在纽约和伦敦上市的复杂性，他还没有充分理解：在美国证券交易所上市，阿美将会面临2001年9月11日恐怖袭击案的法律诉讼；在伦敦证券交易所上市，机构投资者会因为对为阿美上市在则降低标准的操作而感到不满。这位王储误以为既然给银行家和上市咨询机构了大笔的费用，金融界的其他人就会因此卑躬屈膝。

Listing initially on the Tadawul only, as well as doing a private placement, may be a misguided attempt by MBS to skirt some of these difficulties, advisers say. It is seen as a way to promote the Saudi capital markets, and avoid the impression of selling off the family silver to foreigners. But with a limited pool of capital in the kingdom, some say a listing there could never raise the $100bn that MBS needs for his so-called Public Investment Fund to bankroll non-oil investments in the country.

上市咨询机构称，只在沙特证券交易所上市，以及进行私募，也许是王子为了回避一些困难而作出的误导行为。这种做法既保护沙特资本市场，同时避免了留下将家族财富卖给外国人的印象。但是，在王室资金有限的情况下，有人认为只在一地上市不可能募集到100亿美元。王子需要这笔钱组建他所谓的“公共投资基金”，投入国内石油以外的项目中。

Advisers say the kingdom is also considering recent expressions of interest by Chinese oil companies and other Asian investors, who are keen to take up to a 5% stake in Aramco. The attraction is that it would further cement ties between the world’s biggest producer and huge consumers of oil. But it would be unlikely to give the crown prince the $2trn valuation he wants, unless he guarantees large supplies of cheap oil as a side deal.

上市咨询机构称，沙物王室也在考虑中国石油企业和亚洲投资者近来表达出的兴趣。他们很相购买阿美5%的股权，此举将进一步加强世界最大产油国和巨大的石油消费国之间的联系。不过，王储想要啊募集到他定下的2万亿美元，这不太可能，除非他能够保证私下提供大量廉价石油。

The confusion is uncomfortable for Aramco, which, as national oil companies go, should be an attractive bet for investors. It has 15 times more reserves of oil and gas than ExxonMobil, its biggest private competitor, higher production, fewer employees and lower costs per barrel. It also has an abundance of young (including many female) engineers, and technology that can almost visualise the sea of oil beneath the desert sands. Its executives say that efficiencies inherited from the days that it was American-owned persist. Many Aramcons, as company officials are known, appear to view the IPO as an unwelcome distraction, but are at least mollified by the prestige they think an international listing would confer.

对于阿美公司来说，这样的困境很是难受。按国有石油企业的行情，阿美应当是投资者眼里诱人的肥肉。比起最大的竞争对手埃克森美孚公司，其油气储备要多出15倍，员工数量更少，每桶价格也更低。阿美有充足的年轻工程师（包括很多女性）和几乎能够探明沙漠之下大片的石油的技术。阿美的高管称，公司还与美国当年占有时一样高效。很多阿美员工，即公司官员，将上市看作是多此一举。只因在国际市场上市会带来声誉，才不那么反对在海外上市。

To achieve that goal, MBS may need to reflect further on what an IPO means. His government is Aramco’s only shareholder and should, of course, have the final say. But unless he is prepared to loosen the reins, allow the IPO to advance at a prudent pace, and let investors decide what the correct value is, he might do better to scrap it altogether. His attitude so far suggests too little faith in the market forces that he wants to unleash.

为了实现这一目标，王储可能需要反思一下上市的意义所在。他的政府是阿美的唯一股东，理应掌握最终话语权。如果没有准备好就放松管制，不能让上市股在谨慎的步伐中推进，也无法让投资者决定正确的市场价值，那最好还是索性取消这个计划。到目前为止，从他的态度可以看出对希望放开运行的市场作用力，他的信心远远不足。

编译：程馨莹

审校：张思琦

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人