GOOD news about conservation is always welcome, and never more so than when it concerns that most charismatic of charismatic mega-fauna, the giant panda. On September 5th the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), an environmental group that links governments and NGOs, downgraded the international symbol of cuteness from “endangered” (meaning with a high risk of extinction in the wild) to “vulnerable” (ie, to becoming endangered). “Everyone should celebrate,” said Lo Sze Ping, the boss of WWF-China, a group whose logo is the cuddly-looking creature.

关于保护动物的好消息始终是受欢迎的，尤其是涉及到最有魅力的大型动物大熊猫的时候。9月5日，联系政府和非政府组织的环保组织国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）将国际上作为可爱的象征大熊猫这种从濒危等级（意味着在野外有灭绝的高风险）降级为易危等级（即将成为濒危）。世界自然基金会中国区（WWF-China）负责人罗思平（Lo Sze Ping）表示每个人都应该感到高兴。这个基金会的标志就是一只可爱的熊猫。

China has made huge efforts to promote panda-breeding over the past 30 years. But those efforts have nothing to do with the animal’s reclassification. They take place in captivity. The conservationists’ decision was based on the health of panda populations in the wild. The numbers there, according to government surveys, have increased from 1,114 in 1988 to 1,864 in the most recent panda census in 2013. This is five times as many as the number of captive pandas.

中国过去30年来为推动大熊猫繁育作出了巨大的努力。但这些努力与动物的重新分类无关。中国只是圈养熊猫。这个机构做出的决定是根据野外熊猫种群的良好状况而定的。根据中国政府的调查，在1988年，野外熊猫的数量是1,114只，到最近一次，在2013年熊猫普查，增加到1,864只。这个数字是圈养大熊猫数量的五倍。

Their increase in the wild reflects improvements in the pandas’ habitat, the dense bamboo forests of China’s south-west (see map). After a period of chopping down everything in sight, the country now has 67 protected panda reserves, covering about half the animals’ range. Two-thirds of wild pandas live in them. The opportunity cost of such reservations is doubtless made lighter by the pandas’ earning power (foreign zoos pay $1m a year to rent a pair). But the government deserves credit for decades of conservation efforts.

野外熊猫的数量的增加反映了中国西南地区的大熊猫栖息地（见地图）的改善。在一段时间的乱砍滥伐之后，全国现有67个熊猫保护区，覆盖了大约一半熊猫活动动范围。现在三分之二的野生大熊猫都居住在这些保护区内。野生熊猫保护区的机会成本无疑会由于熊猫的收益能力而变得更少（国外动物园每年租用一对熊猫的费用是100万美元）。不过中国政府在几十年的保护工作是令人赞赏的。

The result is that China now has two panda populations, both increasing: the wild one, merely threatened, and the more frequently-photographed captive one. Though fewer in number, the captive pandas are much more fertile. The wild population rose by 268 between 2003 and 2013, or 17%. The captive population more than doubled from 164 to 375. Pandas have a reputation for being hopeless at reproduction (females come into heat only a couple of days a year). But the old difficulty of getting them to breed in captivity owed at least as much to human ignorance. As knowledge of panda biology and behaviour has soared, so has the birth rate.

这使得中国现在有两种熊猫种群，数量都在增长：受到威胁的野生熊猫种群与经常上镜的人工饲养种群。圈养的熊猫数量虽然更少，生殖能力更强。2003年至2013年，野生大熊猫数量增多了268只，即增长了17％。圈养的大熊猫数量从164只增加到375只，增长了一倍多。众所周知，熊猫很难繁殖（雌性大熊猫每年只有几天才发情）。但是圈养要解决的老大难问题和人类的无知程度相当。随着人们对大熊猫生物学及其行为认知程度的上升，大熊猫的出生率也有所提高。

Unfortunately, this is making no difference to the wild population. The point of the captive breeding programme is to repopulate the wild. Pandas born in captivity undergo a two-year training process from teachers dressed in urine-soaked panda costumes, who teach them how to gather food and to be wary of people. But after years of effort only five captive-born pandas have been released. Two of those died. Two more are due to be introduced into the wild this winter.

但不幸的是，这对野外大熊猫的数量没有任何影响。圈养繁殖计划的重点是繁殖野生动物。圈养出生的大熊猫会经历一个为期两年的训练过程，饲养员穿着大熊猫尿液浸透的熊猫服装，教导他们如何捕食以及警惕人类。但经过多年的努力，只有五只被圈养大熊猫被放生,其中两只死亡。今年冬天还将有两只放归野外。

After all this, China’s government might have been expected to crow about the IUCN’s decision. It refrained. The State Forestry Administration (which supervises the pandas’ habitat) even came near to criticising it. The bureau pointed out that the wild panda population is fragmented into 33 subgroups, 18 of which have just ten or fewer animals, making them (the bureau says) “highly endangered”. Moreover, these groups are isolated from one another. This limits their gene pool and makes them disease-prone. Furthermore, the bureau said, quoting the IUCN’s research, climate change could destroy a third of panda habitat in the next 80 years.

这件事宣布之后，中国政府可能会夸耀世界自然保护联盟的决定。不过，中国政府却很克制。国家林业局（负责监督大熊猫栖息地）甚至是在批评其决定。该部门指出，野生熊猫被分成33个分类，其中有18类中只有十只甚至更少的大熊猫，濒危程度更高。而且，这些群体彼此孤立。这限制了它们的基因库，使它们容易发生疾病。此外，国家林业局在引用国际自然保护联盟（IUCNs）的研究报告时指出，气候变化可能在未来80年内摧毁三分之一的大熊猫栖息地

Around the world a sad parade of animals is travelling towards extinction (sometimes because of demand for their body parts from users of traditional Chinese medicine). The IUCN recently put another iconic species, the eastern lowland gorilla, on its endangered list. So it is heart-warming to see the panda going in the other direction. But the international symbol of conservation needs to lumber much farther from the edge of annihilation.

世界各地的都有一部分动物正在走向灭绝（有时是因为传统中医药对动物身体部位的需求）。世界自然保护联盟最近将另一个标志性的物种——东部低地大猩猩列入其濒危名录。因此，看到大熊猫走出濒危名单令人欣慰。但是，作为国际保护的象征的熊猫远离湮灭的边缘，仍然是道路漫长。

编译：丁晨

审校：许聪

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人