RUSSIA’s elite had been on edge for months. A new American law on sanctions, passed last summer, required the administration to draw up lists of senior officials and “oligarchs” close to Vladimir Putin’s regime. Though inclusion on the list would not automatically lead to sanctions, many feared that it would be tantamount to a scarlet letter. Businessmen hired lawyers and lobbyists to press their case in Washington. Some considered bringing capital back to Russia, fearing asset freezes and seizures.

俄罗斯的精英阶层在过去的数月里一直惴惴不安。去年夏天美国通过的一份新制裁法案要求特朗普政府草拟出与弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）政权关系紧密的高级官员和“寡头”名单。虽然位列名单中并不会自动受到制裁，但很多人害怕这等同于胸前戴上红字。商人们聘用律师和说客在华盛顿积极陈述他们的情况。一些人担心资产遭冻结和没收，考虑将资产转回俄罗斯。

Then early this week the list came out, and sniggering ensued—on both sides of the Atlantic. Just over 100 senior government officials were named. Keen commentators noted that the selection closely matched publicly available lists on the English-language version of the Kremlin website. Konstantin Kosachev, the head of the foreign-affairs committee of the upper house of parliament, said that the administration appeared to have “copied the Kremlin’s phone book”. Another 96 big businessmen were singled out; the entirety, in fact, of the billionaires list from the Russian edition of Forbes. “My research assistant could have done it in an hour—maybe less,” tweeted Michael McFaul, a former American ambassador to Russia.

于是，本周早些时候名单公布于世，随之而来的是窃窃自喜——大西洋两岸都是如此。名单上只有100多位政府高级官员。敏锐的评论人士评论称，这份名单和克里姆林宫英文官网上公开的那些名单极为一致。俄罗斯联邦委员会外交事务委员会主席康斯坦丁·科萨切夫（Konstantin Kosachev）称，特朗普政府好像“抄袭了克里姆林宫的电话簿”。另有96名商界要人榜上有名；事实上，他们都是俄国版《福布斯》富翁榜上的亿万富翁。美国前驻俄大使迈克尔·麦克福尔在推特上写道：“我的研究助理或许在一个小时内就能完成名单——时间或者更少。”

The copy-paste approach produced an eclectic and illogical list. Alongside well-known cronies and old friends of Mr Putinare fairly neutral executives, Russian citizens who operate mostly abroad and magnates who have clashed with the Kremlin. As a result, the report is “so broad, so inclusive and so non-discriminatory” that it undercuts the purpose of the bill, argues Daniel Fried, the State Department’s former co-ordinator for sanctions.

这种复制粘贴做成的名单涵盖广泛，没有逻辑性。除了普京著名的亲密老友外，还有立场很中立的行政官员，主要在海外经商的俄罗斯居民以及与俄罗斯政府有过节的富豪。因此，美国国务院制裁政策协调员丹尼尔•弗里德(Daniel Fried)认为，这份报告“覆盖面广，包涵众多，一视同仁”，损害了该法案目的。

For Donald Trump’s administration, that may have been the point. Mr Trump reluctantly signed the bill, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), after it sailed through Congress last year. “There’s a huge philosophical gap between where the president and the bureaucracy stand on sanctions and Russia policy writ large,” says Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The so-called Kremlin report followed an earlier announcement that the government would not yet impose sanctions on countries or companies doing business with Russia’s defence and intelligence sectors, another step mandated by CAATSA. The Kremlin brushed off the report’s potential impact. The rouble rallied slightly and Russian borrowing costs dipped when it was published, suggesting the markets saw little to worry about.

对于特朗普政府来说，这或许就是其意义所在。去年，美国国会顺利通过《以制裁反击美国敌人法案》(CAATSA)，之后特朗普不情愿地签字同意。卡内基国际和平基金会（Carnegie Endowment for International Peace）的安德鲁·韦斯(Andrew Weiss)说：“显而易见，总统和行政机构对于制裁和对俄政策的看法在理念上存在巨大的分歧。”这份所谓的克里姆林宫报告发布之前，公布了《以制裁反击美国敌人法案》授权的另一内容，即特朗普政府不会向和俄罗斯国防和情报部门打交道的国家和企业实施制裁。俄罗斯政府并不理睬该报告的潜在影响。在报告公布之后，卢布小幅上涨，俄罗斯借贷成本下降，暗示了市场似乎并不担心。

Nonetheless, the report may yet bite. More detailed and damning information may be included in a classified section. Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, said further sanctions would follow from the published list. Western businesses and banks may be more reluctant to deal with the Russians named. The Association of European Businesses, a lobbying group in Moscow, warned that the report “increases the uncertainty in the Russian business environment” and could affect the interests of European investors and firms operating in Russia. RBC, a Russian business-news agency, reckons that the 96 businessmen on the list collectively lost$1.1bn because of share-price movements on the day after its release. Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader who campaigns on an anti-corruption message and days earlier had led nationwide protests, cheered the report, saying: “We’re glad that they’ve been labelled crooks and thieves at the international level.”

尽管如此，该报告也许不会有什么作用。更多详细确凿的信息或许在保密部分里。美国财政部部长史提夫·纽切纳称，名单公布后，还会有更多的制裁。西方企业和银行可能更不愿意与名单上的俄罗斯人打交道。在莫斯科的企业利益团体欧洲商业协会(Association of European Business)警告称，该报告“增加了俄罗斯商业环境的不确定因素”，可能影响在俄的欧洲投资人和企业的利益。商业新闻通讯社俄罗斯商业咨询(RBC)估计，上榜的96位商人在名单的公布后的当天，由于股价浮动，一共损失11亿美元。俄罗斯反对派领袖亚历克谢·纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)在竞选活动中声称反腐运动，并在数天前领导了全俄罗斯范围内的抗议活动。他为该报告欢呼，并说道：“我们很高兴他们在全球被称为骗子和小偷。”

编译：余兴宇

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.02.03）