“一带一路”倡议的进口价格效应

“一带一路”倡议的进口价格效应

Import Price Effect of the “Belt and Road” Initiative

《财经研究》2023年49卷第7期 页码：93 - 107,137 online：2023年7月3日

作者

中：李宁静 , 闫强明 , 刘冲

英：Li Ningjing, Yan Qiangming, Liu Chong

作者单位：北京大学 经济学院, 北京 100871

摘要及关键词

摘要：进口贸易是一国引进技术与资本、繁荣国内市场的关键环节，考察“一带一路”倡议是否有助于降低沿线国家进口价格具有重要意义。文章通过拓展Antràs等（2017）的进口贸易模型，并利用双重差分方法，结合2009—2018年国家产品层面贸易数据，考察了“一带一路”倡议降低沿线国家进口价格的因果效应和作用机制。研究结果表明：（1）通过加入“一带一路”倡议，沿线国家的进口价格得到了显著的下降，这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后保持不变。（2）通过扩展进口来源国的竞争效应和提高进口方采购量的需求效应，“一带一路”倡议对降低沿线国家进口价格产生了积极作用。（3）“一带一路”倡议推动进口价格下降的主要动力来自集约边际，价格降幅在资本技术密集型和垄断程度较强的行业中更为明显，且对发展中国家的影响也更为显著。上述结论充分表明了“一带一路”倡议对于完善全球经济治理体系具有重要政策含义。

关键词：“一带一路”倡议；进口价格；议价能力

Summary: Maintaining a reasonable and stable import price is of great significance for a country’s industrialization development and social welfare, and plays an important role in promoting the healthy and sustainable development of economic globalization. The high import price reduces the opportunity for developing countries to access high-tech and machinery equipment, being neglected in the global benefit distribution, and ultimately affecting economic growth. This paper attempts to clarify whether the “Belt and Road” initiative can reduce the import price and its internal mechanism, and whether there is a heterogeneous price effect. This paper finds that the “Belt and Road” initiative, focusing on connectivity, can expand the trade network and strengthen the depth of transactions, providing countries with external value of transactions, thus helping to reduce their import prices and promoting the realization of fair trade gains. The “Belt and Road” initiative plays a positive role in reducing import prices through competition and demand effects. The main driving force derives from the intensive margin, and the price decline is more obvious in capital- and technology-intensive industries and monopoly industries, and has a more significant impact on developing countries. The innovations of this paper are that: First, it brings bargaining power and transaction intensity into a unified framework for the first time. Based on the practical characteristics of the “Belt and Road” initiative, it provides a theoretical and empirical basis for understanding the connotation of the “Belt and Road” initiative and how to promote countries to participate in the international trade cycle, which is an expansion of the perspective and content of import prices. Second, by adding the setting of incomplete contracts, the possible monopoly characteristics in international exchanges are introduced into the analytical framework, the exogenous value and transaction depth of international trade network are discussed, and the internal mechanism of the “Belt and Road” initiative to promote the decline of the import prices of countries along the route is distinguished and measured from the mechanism. And the causal effect of the “Belt and Road” initiative on the decline of the import prices of participating countries is more rigorously identified by using the DID method. Third, import trade is of great significance to a country’s introduction of technology and capital and prosperity of the domestic market. It is particularly necessary to investigate whether the “Belt and Road” initiative will help to reduce the import prices of countries along the route. This paper objectively evaluates the practical policy effect of the “Belt and Road” initiative on promoting the rational and balanced development of global economic governance system, and provides support for the follow-up research.

Key words: the “Belt and Road” initiative; import price; bargaining power

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20220914.201

收稿日期：2022-09-28

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目（21&ZD097）；中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2022M710239）

点

这里“阅读原文”，查看更多