增值税留抵退税的就业创造效应

增值税留抵退税的就业创造效应

The Employment Creation Effect of Value-added Tax Refunds

《财经研究》2023年49卷第11期 页码：19 - 33, 94 online：2023年11月3日

作者

中：刘贯春1 , 吴佳其1 , 叶永卫2 , 黄馨3

英：Liu Guanchun1, Wu Jiaqi1, Ye Yongwei2, Huang Xin3

作者单位：1. 中山大学 岭南学院, 广东 广州 510275; 2. 上海财经大学 公共经济与管理学院, 上海 200433; 3. 湖南工商大学 国际商学院, 湖南 长沙 410205

摘要及关键词

摘要：增值税留抵退税政策是当前经济环境下，政府为减轻企业资金压力、带动扩大有效投资、着力稳定宏观经济大盘而做出的重要举措，因而科学评估留抵退税政策的经济效应对进一步优化税收优惠政策具有重要意义。文章基于2013—2021年中国A股上市公司微观数据，利用双重差分法评估了2018年增值税留抵退税试点政策对企业就业吸纳能力的影响。结果显示，增值税留抵退税政策显著提高了企业的就业规模，该结论在进行动态效应分析、安慰剂检验、排除其他同时期政策影响以及替换模型设定形式四个维度的稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，留抵退税的就业创造效应主要通过缓解企业流动性约束实现。此外，异质性分析发现，增值税留抵退税政策对融资约束高、劳动密集型、税收征管强度大的企业促进作用更显著。进一步分析表明，留抵退税政策的实施显著提高了企业的技术员工占比和员工工资水平，但对企业劳动收入份额无显著影响。文章结论为政府部门通过留抵退税政策实现“稳增长、稳市场主体、保就业”提供了理论依据和实践参考。

关键词：增值税留抵退税；流动性约束；稳就业

Summary: As the main demand side of the labor market, enterprises play a remarkable role in stabilizing employment. In the context of increasing downward pressures on the economy, it is of great significance to effectively use fiscal policies to help enterprises relieve their difficulties and achieve full employment of the workforce. To this end, China has introduced a series of preferential policies to reduce taxes and fees in recent years, and the value-added tax refund (VATR) policy is one of them. In this paper, we explore the impact of the VATR policy on labor force employment in enterprises. The results show that the VATR policy significantly promotes corporate employment, and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests such as dynamic effect analysis, placebo test, exclusion of other contemporaneous policy effects, and replacement model setting. Mechanism testing indicates that the employment creation effect of the VATR policy is mainly achieved by alleviating the liquidity constraints of enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the employment creation effect of the VATR policy is more prominent in enterprises with higher financing constraints, higher labor intensity, and higher tax collection and management level. Further, the implementation of the VATR policy significantly increases the proportion of technical staff and the wage level of employees, but has no significant impact on labor income share. The contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it examines the impact of the VATR policy on the employment absorption capacity of enterprises. Existing literature has explored the impact of the VATR policy on corporate investment and corporate value; while this paper examines the impact of the VATR policy on corporate employment from the perspective of liquidity constraints, expanding the existing research scope and enriching the research on the economic effect of the VATR policy. Second, it confirms that liquidity constraints are the mechanism through which the VATR policy promotes the employment absorption capacity of enterprises. Existing literature has verified the importance of liquidity constraints to corporate employment from the perspectives of monetary policy, political association, and local government debt financing; while this paper studies the impact of liquidity constraints on the employment absorption capacity of enterprises from the perspective of VATR, providing new evidence for the employment impact of liquidity constraints. Third, it has important policy implications. This paper argues that the VATR policy effectively alleviates the liquidity constraints of enterprises and has a significant promoting effect on their employment scale, providing a certain theoretical basis and practical evidence for governments to use the VATR policy to enhance market confidence, stabilize the macroeconomic landscape, and improve the domestic employment level, and also providing a factual basis for the subsequent formulation and adjustment of relevant tax and fee reduction policies.

Key words:value-added tax refunds; liquidity constraints; stable employment

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230414.201

收稿日期：2022-12-05

基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目（72003116）；广东省自然科学基金面上项目（2022A1515010204）

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