ASTANA in Kazakhstan is one of the world’s most remote capitals, surrounded by thousands of kilometres of empty steppe. This summer Astana attempted to launch itself onto the global stage by hosting the World Expo, which closed on September 10th and underwhelmed many attendees. But there are other ways to have an impact. On the city’s north side, away from the Expo’s exhibits, a series of diesel trains, each pulling dozens of containers, roll through the old railway station. Most are heading from China to Europe. Last year over 500,000 tonnes of freight went by train between the two, up from next to nothing before 2013. Airlines and shipping firms are watching things closely.

哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳是世界上最偏远的国家首府之一，周围环绕着数千公里的荒芜草原。今年夏天，阿斯塔纳试图通过举办世界博览会来登上全球舞台。在9月10日闭幕的世博会让许多参与者感到了失望。不过，它的影响通过其它方法得以体现。在距离世博会很远的阿斯塔纳北部，有很多列的柴油火车，拉着几十个集装箱，穿过旧火车站。很多火车从中国开往到欧洲。去年，中哈两国之间的火车货运总量超过了50万吨，在2013年之前还寥寥无几。航空和船运公司正在密切关注事态发展。

The trains rumbling through Astana result from a Chinese initiative, in tandem with countries like Kazakhstan, to build a “New Silk Road” through Central Asia. The earlier overland routes were once the conduits for most trade between Europe and China and India; they faded into irrelevance when European ships started circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope.

中国提出与哈萨克斯坦等国家一起打造一条贯穿中亚的“新丝绸之路”，而这些轰隆隆驶过阿斯塔纳的货运列车正是这一倡议的成果。古丝绸之路曾是欧洲与中国及印度之间大多数贸易往来的通道。当欧洲船只开始绕行好望角之后，这一陆上贸易通道就渐渐衰落了。

China has long wanted to develop its inland regions and push industry to “go west”, in order to spread economic growth more evenly. Manufacturers have been loth to shift, in part because of the higher cost of moving goods to ports for export. Developing a rail-freight network to Europe—an important part of China’s “One Belt One Road” policy—opens up a new route to market for its poorest areas. The land route through Central Asia is relatively short. A container ship too large for the Suez canal must make a 24,000km journey to reach Europe. Trains travel no more than 11,000km to reach the same destination.

长期以来，中国一直希望发展内陆地区，推动工业“向西”发展，促进更平均的经济发展。制造业厂商一直不愿改变，一部分原因是将货物运往港口的成本更高。发展一个通往欧洲的铁路货运网络是中国“一带一路”倡议的重要组成部分，为中国最贫困地区开辟了一条通往市场的新道路。通过中亚到达欧洲的陆路相对较短。无法通过苏伊士运河的大型集装箱船必须航行2.4万公里才能到达欧洲，火车运输的话全程不超过1.1万公里。

Kazakhstan has spent over 1.1trn tenge ($3.2bn) on upgrading its railway lines and rolling stock since 2011. That includes $250m on the Khorgos Gateway, a dry port at the border with China that lifts containers from Chinese trains onto Kazakh ones to overcome a change in track width (a problem that has stymied previous efforts to build railway routes between Europe and China).

2011年以来，哈萨克斯坦斥资逾1.1万亿坚戈(合32亿美元)升级铁路线路和铁路机车，其中有2.5亿美元投向中哈边境的无水港霍尔果斯港(Khorgos Gateway)。由于中哈铁路轨距不同，需要在此将中国列车上的集装口岸箱转移到哈萨克斯坦的列车上(这一问题阻碍了之前在中哈之间修建铁路)。

Volumes of freight travelling between China and Europe by rail are rising quickly. Between 2013 and 2016 cargo traffic quintupled in weight. In the first half of this year the value of goods travelling by train rose by 144% compared with the same period in 2016. Western firms have been keen to embrace rail freight because it helps them to lower costs, says Ronald Kleijwegt, an expert on the industry. In the case of high-tech electronics, for example, which consumers like to receive quickly, making them on China’s coast and air-freighting them to Europe is extremely pricey.

中国和欧洲之间铁路货运量正在快速增长。2013年至2016年之间，货运量增长了四倍。今年上半年，经铁路运输的货物价值比2016年同期增长144%。行业专家罗纳德·克莱伊韦格特（Ronald Kleijwegt）表示，西方企业一直热衷于铁路货运，因为铁路运输有助于降低成本。以高科技电子行业为例，高科技电子产品的消费者希望能快速收到货物，而在中国沿海地区制造这些产品再空运至欧洲的成本极高。

How worried should shipping firms and airlines be? Kazakhstan’s national rail company, KTZ, says it will have capacity for 1.7m containers to pass through the country between Europe and China each year by 2020; that is a tenth of the volume currently carried by sea and air between the two. In the longer term, a full modernisation of the existing main three rail routes from China to Europe could produce 3m containers a year in capacity.

航运和航空企业对此的担心是什么呢?哈萨克斯坦国家铁路公司（KTZ）表示，到2020年，中国每年将有170万集装箱运输于欧洲和中国之间，是目前两地间海运和空运年运输量的十分之一。从长远来看，从中国到欧洲三条铁路线路的全面现代化将带来每年300万个集装箱的运力。

But there are reasons to doubt that will happen. For one thing, China plans to stop handing out government subsidies for additional rail-freight capacity from 2020, which will slow the network’s expansion. Sea freight has little to fear in the near term, says Soren Skou, chief executive of Maersk, the world’s biggest container-shipping line. Trains may take away some future growth from ships, he concedes, but not their existing business.

但是，有理由对这个前景产生。一方面，中国计划从2020年起停止向新增铁路运力提供政府府补贴，这将放缓铁路运输网络扩张的速度。全球最大的集装箱航运公司马士基（Maersk）的首席执行官施索仁（Soren Skou）表示，海运业在短期内没什么可担心的。他承认，火车可能会抢走船舶一部分未来的增量业务，不过其现有业务不会被抢夺。

Air cargo is more vulnerable. Last year, 180,000 tonnes of cargo travelled on trains to western Europe from China (the remainder was destined for Russia and eastern Europe). That is a small fraction of the 52m tonnes that came by sea, but a big chunk of the 700,000 tonnes that came by air. Much of that air cargo could switch to rail in future, says Mr Kleijwegt, with one important proviso—that Russia would need to lift the retaliatory sanctions it placed in 2014 on imports of Western food, which stop most foodstuffs from travelling by land between Europe and China. That is unlikely for the time being. But it was only a decade ago that people thought the idea of freight trains between Europe and China was a joke, says Mr Kleijwegt—and no one laughs at that any more.

空运更易受影响。去年，18万吨货物从中国经铁路运往西欧（其余运往俄罗斯和东欧），这在经海路运抵的5200万吨中只是一小部分，但在经空运抵达的70万吨中却是很大一块。克莱伊韦格特表示，未来大部分空运货物都可能转而走铁路，不过，一个重要的前提条件是，俄罗斯需解除从2014年起对西方进口食品施行的报复性制裁措施，这一措施阻碍了中欧之间大多数食品的陆路运输。目前看来，不大可能取消制裁。不过，克莱伊韦格特称，仅仅十年前，中欧之间开通货运列车还被看作一个笑话，而如今再也没人取笑了。

编译：周文卓

审核：雷月营

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人