NO COMPANY WANTS to replicate what happened to Hachette in 2014, when the publisher balked at Amazon’s terms. Suddenly its book shipments seemed to be delayed and Amazon was recommending titles from other publishers. The dispute ended with Hachette getting more control over pricing. But the deal showed the risks for producers of all kinds as online platforms gain strength.

没有一家公司想要重现2014年发生在阿歇特集团(Hachette)的事情。当时出版商拒绝了亚马逊(Amazon)的条件。突然间，该书商的书籍预定推迟了，亚马逊将推荐其他出版商的图书。这场纠纷以阿歇特集团掌握更多定价控制权而告终。但这次交易表明，随着网络平台实力增强，各类产商都面临各种风险。

The old system suited many businesses. Clothing manufacturers followed a predictable calendar for when goods would be produced and distributed. Giant makers of household products and food had to deal with stingy retailers such as Walmart, but they could also swat away smaller competitors with spending on expensive television ads.

原有的订价体系为许多企业所使用。服装制造商依循了一种可预测的时间安排，制订生产和销售的时间。大型家用产品和食品制造商不得不与沃尔玛等苛刻的零售商打交道，并用巨额电视广告投入来击败规模较小的竞争对手。

E-commerce is changing all this. Companies that sell dresses and shoes to conventional retailers like Macy’s find them in turmoil, threatened both by online sellers and by nimbler bricks-and-mortar ones such as Zara. For larger producers of packaged consumer goods, the rise of e-commerce compounds problems created by customers’ increased interest in healthier, more “natural” products. E-commerce helps small rivals distribute their products. Thanks to online reviews and blogs, shoppers no longer have to rely on big brands.

电子商务正在改变这一切。像将服装和鞋子出售给梅西货等传统零售商的企业发现自己身陷混乱之中，受到了威胁不仅来自网络销售商，也来自Zara这种经营灵活的实体店。对于快速消费品的大型生产商来说，由于电子商务的兴起，消费者对健康和“自然”的产品的越来越感兴趣，这个问题就变得更为复杂。电子商务能帮助小型企业销售产品，而且得益于网上的评论和博客，消费者们不再只信赖大品牌。

Yet for those brands, all is not lost. Evidence from Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, suggests that the strongest ones will be fine, just as Adele and Taylor Swift have thrived in the age of streaming music; it is the mediocre brands that will fade away as both smaller competitors and giant ones flourish. And e-commerce brings its own opportunities. Alibaba and JD make it easier for big firms to reach China’s smaller cities, which are expected to provide more than 70% of new online shoppers by 2020. New distribution methods can also reap efficiencies by cutting out the middleman. Other stages of a product’s life such as design and production might be transformed, too. Mattel, an American toy company, is working with Alibaba to mine the Chinese firm’s data to develop toys that appeal to Chinese mothers.

然而，对于那些大品牌来说，损失不一而足。市场研究机构桑福德伯恩斯坦（Sanford c . Bernstein）的一些数据表明，实力最强的企业并不受影响，就像阿黛尔（Adele）和泰勒•斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)在网络音乐时代大受欢迎一样；随着大小竞争对手的蓬勃发展，中等品牌将逐渐消失。电商自己创造了发展机遇。阿里巴巴和京东让大企业更容易进入中国小城市，预计到2020年，这些城市将产生70%以上的新网络购物者。新的分销方式也通过减少中间商环节来提高效率。一个产品的生命周期中的设计和生产阶段也可能发生变革。美国玩具企业美泰公司（Mattel）正在与阿里巴巴合作，挖掘中国公司的信息数据，以开发吸引中国母亲的玩具。

E-commerce is also changing how manufacturers advertise their goods. Companies have long used cookies to follow consumers around the web, bidding in automated auctions to place ads before the right kind of shoppers. Now those strategies are being further refined. Sebastien Szczepaniak, an Amazon veteran, is head of e-commerce for Nestlé, the world’s biggest food company. He matches Amazon’s data with Nestlé’s own sources to target messages to individuals rather than just to certain types of consumers. “We are moving from marketing to the unknown to marketing to the known,” he explains. Chinese e-commerce firms, given the scope of their activities, have even more useful data about consumers’ habits and purchases, both online and in stores.

电子商务也在改变制造商宣传产品的方式。长期以来，企业一直使用电脑访问记录来追踪上网的消费者，通过自动竞价的方式向目标消费群体投放广告。这些策略现在正在进一步完善。亚马逊前员工Sebastien Szczepaniak是世界最大食品企业雀巢的电子商务主管。他将亚马逊的数据与雀巢自有的数据相匹配，针对个人而不是特定消费群体发送信息。他说：“我们的市场营销正从未知转向已知。”中国的电子商务公司，就其活动的经营范围来说，拥有消费者更多地有效的线上和线下消费习惯和购买记录数据。

Meanwhile all producers will continue to worry about big online platforms amassing too much power. It is Amazon, not the companies that sell on it, that knows what customers buy, and when. It makes some of these data available to others, for a fee, but Ali Dibadj of Bernstein notes that the data are limited and come at a high price.

与此同时，所有的制造商仍担心大型在线平台会积聚太多的权力。与其他在亚马逊平台上销售的企业不同，亚马逊知道顾客买什么，在什么时候买。它将这些数据提供给其他人，从中收取费用，但伯恩斯坦的迪巴吉(Ali Dibadj）指出，这些数据是有限的，费用高。

Amazon now looks set to wield even more power over manufacturers. Alexa can suggest that consumers buy certain items, for instance, and might eventually be programmed to shop automatically. “We’ll be having bots trying to influence your bots about buying our products,” predicts Keith Weed, chief marketing officer for Unilever. To complicate matters, Amazon is steadily introducing its own private-label goods to compete. Mr Bezos’s tolerance for low profits—“Your margin is my opportunity,” as he once put it—provides little comfort.

亚马逊(Amazon)现在似乎会对制造商施加更大的压力。例如，Alexa可以建议消费者购买某些商品，并最终可能设置为自动购物。联合利华(Unilever)首席营销官基思•威德(Keith Weed)预测道：“我们将推出一种机器人，能影响推荐买我们的产品的机器人。”更复杂的是，亚马逊正在推荐自有品牌产品，参与竞争。贝索斯（Bezos）容忍低利润让人不安，他曾经说过“你的利润就是我的机会“。

“We need Amazon, and Amazon needs us,” says Mr Szczepaniak. But another executive privately describes the company as a “freight train” heading for his business. In future, many makers the world over are likely to pursue a three-part strategy, distributing on sites such as Amazon, in stores and through their own channels. Avoiding the first option is getting increasingly hard. Nike, which had withheld its products for years, recently agreed to sell on Amazon after all.

”我们需要亚马逊，亚马逊也需要我们，“Szczepaniak说。不过，另一位雀巢的高管私下称亚马逊是朝本公司业务开来的“货运列车”。未来，世界各地的许多制造商可能会采取三大销售战略：亚马逊(Amazon)等电商网站，实体店以及自主渠道。逃避第一种渠道会越来越难。耐克(Nike)多年来一直自主销售，最近才登陆亚马逊上销售。

编译：李颖

审校：靳婷

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人