GENERAL MOTORS reveals barn-sized truck at Detroit motor show. What else is new, you might now ask. But the launch on January 20th of the Chevrolet Silverado, a pickup that will go on sale at the end of the year, highlights a surprising turnaround for America’s largest carmaker.

在底特律汽车展览会上，通用汽车推出了一辆谷仓大小的卡车。你或许会问，还有什么新车吗？不过，1月20日发布的雪佛兰索罗德，一款在年底上市销售的皮卡，对美国最大的汽车制造商而言，这是一个惊人的转变。

The good news is not just the Silverado’s outsized margins, which are important for a firm that relies heavily on trucks—after Mary Barra, GM’s boss, gave an ebullient performance at an investors’ conference that coincided with the motor show, the release of GM’s quarterly results on February 6th are likely to include record profits. It is also that the money thrown off by vehicles such as the Silverado will help the firm navigate the tricky terrain that lies ahead of all the world’s big carmakers.

好消息是不只是索罗德超大的利润率，因为这对于严重依赖卡车的公司尤为重要。凑巧的时，之前，通用总裁玛丽·巴拉（Mary Barra）在投资者电视会议上发表了热情洋溢的讲话。通用在2月6日公布的季度财报结果，可能会实现创记录的利润。对索罗德等车型投入的钱也会帮助通用汽车在布满荆棘的领域里领先全球大型汽车制造商。

One task is to ensure that their current business of selling vehicles with internal-combustion engines stays healthy. At the same time, they must prepare for a future of electric and autonomous cars (EVs and AVs), which threaten to up-end business models that have endured for a century.

通用汽车的一个任务就是确保他们当前销售的油车汽车业务保持良性发展。同时，他们必须为将来的电动和自动汽车做准备，因为这威胁了持续100年的高端商业模型。

Not so long ago, GM and its peers seemed to be on a path to extinction. Technology firms such as Alphabet, Uber and other pushy newcomers had started a race to develop software that would control driverless cars and to offer ride-hailing and ride-sharing services that are expected to thrive at the expense of car ownership. In April 2017 GM’s market value was overhauled by Tesla’s, a firm that makes just tens of thousands of flashy EVs a year, compared with the millions of vehicles rolling off GM’s production lines.

不久前，通用及其他汽车企业似乎走上了灭绝之路。Alphabet、优步和其他积极进取的新兴企业开始竞相研发无人驾驶汽车的控制软件，并提供叫车服务或拼车服务。随着拥有车的费用提升，这一些服务会繁荣起来。2017年4月，特拉斯的市值彻底超越通用汽车；不过，与通用生产流水线一年下线数百万辆汽车相比，特拉斯公司只生产数万辆华而不实的电动车。

Sentiment has changed dramatically. Since April GM’s share price has surged by 28%, giving the firm back the lead. By contrast, Tesla has struggled with the nuts-and-bolts of carmaking. Production-line problems have hampered a big roll out of its mass-market Model 3. Analysts at Barclays, a bank, say that GM is more “evolving mammal than…dying dinosaur”.

行情发生了翻天覆地的变化。四月以来，通用汽车的股票价格上涨了28%，重回行业领先地位。相反，特拉斯一直在受困于汽车生产的细节问题。生产线问题致使推向大众市场的Model 3无法量产。巴克莱银行的分析师称，通用汽车更像是“进化中的哺乳动物而不是...... 正在灭绝的恐龙”。

One reason for the reversal of fortunes is that GM has convinced investors that its current business is in fine fettle. The cash generated by the Silverado and a range of new pickups will help pay for big investments in EVs and AVs. It does not hurt GM’s case that Ford, its main rival in Detroit, is struggling (see chart). Jim Hackett, a new boss brought in because of his technology know-how, oversaw a lacklustre relaunch in October that was sketchy on Ford’s vision for the future of transport services. On January 24th the firm reported disappointing quarterly results, dashing hopes for quick improvement.

扭转命运的一个原因是通用汽车让投资者相信当前的业务正健康地发展。索罗德带来的现金和一系列的新型皮车将有助于对电动车和自动汽车的大笔投资。这不会对通用汽车有何伤害，而底特律的主要竞争对手福特却陷于困境之中（见图表）。以技术专家新入主福特的吉姆·汉克特在10月没有推出新车型，这让人对福特未来的交通服务愿景没有形成完整印象。1月24日，福特发布的季度财报了令人失望，让人对它有起色的希望破碎了。

In contrast, GM is already well on the way to reshaping itself. For starters, it has diverted resources to where it is a market leader. It has got rid of unprofitable businesses around the world, a process that culminated in a decision last March to sell Opel, its loss-making European carmaker, to France’s PSA. At the same time, GM has invested heavily in new pickups, such as the Silverado.

相比之下，通用公司在很好地重塑自己。对于创业企业来说，它将资源转移到自己处于领导地位的市场之中。它在世界范围砍掉了无利可图的业务，在这作法在去年三月把长期亏损的欧洲汽车制造商欧宝卖给法国的PSA的决定而达到顶峰。同时，通用汽车重金投入在新型皮卡车型上，如索罗德。

Cadillac, GM’s premium brand, may look like an exception to this happy rule. Sales of just 350,000 cars in 2017 puts it far behind its German rivals. Yet sales have doubled since 2010 and it has grown faster than any of them in recent years. Although the firm does not disclose the information, analysts at Morgan Stanley reckon that Cadillac could be worth $13bn, around 20% of GM’s current value. Johan de Nysschen, Cadillac’s boss, admits he runs a “challenger brand”, but sniffs an opportunity. The upheaval created as carmakers grapple with new business models means that “everyone has to start again”.

通用汽车高端品牌凯迪拉克似乎并不是此之列。2017年，只有3.5万辆的销量使其远远落于德国竞争对手。然而，2010年以来，凯迪拉克的销量翻了一倍，在近几年的增长超过比德国汽车厂商。尽管通用汽车没有公布这一类信息，摩根斯坦利的分析师预计卡迪拉克的市场可能有130亿美元，大约是通用汽车当前市值的二成。卡迪拉克总裁约翰·德·尼琛承认，他经营了的“品牌”处于“挑战者”地位，但对机会嗤之以鼻。汽车制造商抓住新业务模式时，创造出巨大变化意味着“每个人都必须重新开始。”

The most important reason for GM’s comeback, though, is its success in convincing investors that it is a leader not just among established carmakers, but among tech firms, too. It has rapidly accelerated from the position of an also-ran in the field of autonomous vehicles to apparent leader. A scorecard issued annually by Navigant, a consultancy, puts GM ahead of the AV pack of carmakers and tech firms, with Alphabet’s Waymo in second place.

尽管如此，通用汽车能东山再起的最重要原因是成功地让投资者相信它不仅是汽车行业的领导者，也是科技企业中的领先者。这让通用汽车从自动汽车领域的落后者赶超，成为地位赫然的领军者。咨询机构Navigant的年度排行榜中，通用汽车在自动汽车制造商和科技公司中排名第一，Alphabet的Waymo位居第二位。

That GM is ahead of Silicon Valley’s risk-takers may seem surprising. But earlier investments, which were once looked on with scepticism, seem to be paying off. Alan Batey, GM’s president for North America, points to the manufacturing of mass-market long-range EVs, where the firm has a lead. The Chevy Bolt, the world’s first such vehicle, has been on sale for over a year, beating Tesla’s Model 3 and the new Nissan LEAF to market.

通用汽车领先于硅谷的冒险家们，这种情况可能会令人吃惊。 不过，曾经备受怀疑的早期投资似乎正在得到回报。通用汽车北美区总裁艾伦·巴蒂（Alan Batey）指出，该公司在大众市场的长途电动汽车制造领域处于领先地位。全球第一辆长途电动汽车雪佛兰博尔特上市了一年多，领先特斯拉的Model 3以及即将上市的日产LEAF。

The Bolt is supposed to be the basis for an ambitious autonomous ride-sharing business. On January 12th GM announced the latest version of its Cruise AV, a Bolt-based robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals. GM plans to use it to launch a commercial scheme in several cities, starting next year. Rival tech firms and carmakers are only running, or are planning to launch, small test projects.

博尔特被认为是将用于有宏伟目标的自动撞车业务的基础。在1月12日通用汽车宣布最新款自动驾驶车型克鲁兹，一款不带方向盘、油门和刹车的博尔特版机器人出租车。通用汽车计划从明年开始用它在多个城市里推出商业项目。同为竞争对手的科技企业和汽车厂商只是在运行小规模的测试，或是计划推出小规模的测试。

Revenge of the robotaxis

机器人出租车反扑

When GM paid $1bn in 2016 for Cruise, an artificial-intelligence startup, many analysts wondered whether it was throwing away money. But the marriage of cutting-edge technology and large-scale manufacturing seems to be paying off. The carmaker has learned to be more nimble; Cruise has picked up how to make its fiddly technology robust enough for the open road. As a result, GM can now mass-produce self-driving cars, says Dan Ammann, second-in-command to Ms Barra. Scale will help steeply to reduce the cost of sensors, which are the key components of an AV.

2016年，通用汽车在人工智能创业企业克鲁兹身上花了10亿美元，当时有很多分析师很奇怪通用是否是会如此撒币。不过，尖端技术和大规模制造业的结合似乎正在产生回报。汽车厂商学会了变得更灵活；克鲁兹学会了如何使它高精度的技术足够强大，能在公共道路上驾驶。 因此，通用汽车现在可以大规模生产自动驾驶汽车，巴拉的副手丹·阿曼这样说道。规模将有助于大幅降低作为自动汽车关键部件的传感器的成本。

The firm is being rewarded because, unlike other carmakers, it has assembled all the parts of the puzzle you need to build new transport services, says Stephanie Brinley of IHS Markit, a consultancy. But even if GM is no longer a dinosaur, risks remain. In particular, it may be too bullish in its estimate of the market for robotaxis and it may be placing too much faith in the benefits of being the first to market.

咨询公司IHS Markit的斯蒂芬妮•布林利（Stephanie Brinley）表示，通用汽车正在获得回报，因为与其它汽车厂商不同，它将所有让人觉需要打造新的交通服务的零部件者收集在一起。不过，即便通用汽车不再是恐龙，风险依存。特别是，对于机器人出租车市场的估计可能过于乐观，可能过于笃信成为第一家自动汽车入市所带来的利益。

The company expects demand to expand quickly. Costs of ride-hailing services, it predicts, will fall from $2.50 a mile now to about $1 as the main expense—the driver—is eliminated. In America alone it would be able to tap a market worth around $1.6trn a year (representing three-quarters of all miles travelled) as drivers are lured from their cars to robotaxis. But what Mr Ammann calls this “very big business opportunity” comes with an inconvenient corollary. As car buyers become car users, GM’s legacy business supplying vehicles to drive will decline accordingly.

通用汽车预计需求会快速扩张。该公司预测，由于主要开支——驾驶员——消失，叫车的成本会从每英里2.5美元降到1美元。仅在美国就能打开每年价值1.6万亿的市场（即四分之三的出行里程），而开车人会从汽车转向机器人出租车。不过，阿曼称为的“非常大的商业机会”同时也必然有不使利。当开车人变成乘车人，通用汽车现有的驾驶汽车制造业务会相应衰弱。

Critics think that GM may have accelerated too swiftly and that it will have to endure years of losses before robotaxis take off. Even if things move fast, points out Berenberg, another bank, GM may not be the one to benefit. The main constraint in growing a ride-hailing business now is acquiring drivers. But when these are eliminated, capital will be the only limit. And that could mean huge fleets of robotaxis chasing passengers, forcing prices down. Riders may then choose a brand they recognise, such as Uber and Lyft, rather than Maven, GM’s ride-hailing business.

评论人士认为，通用汽车可能加速转型过快，在机器人出租车起用前必须承受多年的亏损。贝伦堡银行指出，尽管进展很快，通用汽车可能不会是受益者。目前发展叫车业务主要的障碍就是找到驾驶员。但是当司机被取消时，资本便成为唯一的限制。这意味着巨大的机器出租车队追逐乘客，迫使价格下降。乘车人或许之后会选择他们认可的品牌，比如优步和Lyft，而不是通用汽车的叫车汽车业务Maven。

If so, being first would confer little advantage. And yet, if carmakers do not want to accept their fate passively, they have little choice but to remodel themselves. The outsized Silverado and the sensor-packed Cruise AV show that GM has the present in hand—and that it is at least doing its best to safeguard its future.

如果这样的话，成为第一并不会拥有多少优势。到目前为止，如果汽车厂商不想悲观地接受他们的命运，除了重新找到商业的模式，别无选择。庞大的索罗德以及感应装置的克鲁兹自动汽车表明通用汽车掌握着当前——并且至少它在尽全力来确保未来。

编译：菲菲

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.01.25）