AT AN investor briefing in 2015, Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank, flashed up a picture of a goose. The company is like the bird of legend that produces golden eggs, he explained. In his quest to encourage more laying, Mr Son has taken SoftBank well beyond its telecoms business. The firm also manages the world’s largest tech-investment fund, the $100bn Vision Fund, which has a slew of wealthy backers, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Apple.

在2015年的一次投资人吹风会上，软银（SoftBank）首席执行官孙正义举起一张天鹅的照片晃了晃。他解释称软银就像传说中那只会下金蛋的天鹅。为了鼓励它多下金蛋，孙正义将软银的业务扩展到电信之外的领域。同时，软银也管理着世界上最大的科技投资基金——价值1000亿美元的Vision Fund基金。该基金背后的支持者都是富豪，包括沙特公共投资基金（Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund）和苹果公司。

Using both the firm and the fund, Mr Son has acquired stakes in tech companies at a frenetic pace, by one count opening his chequebook once every four days on average in 2017. Such shopping sprees do not come cheap. SoftBank is one of Japan’s most highly leveraged companies, with debt exceeding ¥15trn ($139bn), not least because of its purchase in 2013 of a controlling stake in Sprint, an American mobilenetwork operator.

凭借手中的软银和基金，孙正义以风卷残云之势收购科技企业的股权；有人估计，在2017年，平均每隔四天他就会打开支票簿，花钱购买股权。这样的狂买并不白来的。软银是日本杠杆率最高的一家企业，债务超过15万亿英磅（合1390亿美元），而这根本不是因为2013年购买了美国移动通讯运营商Sprint公司的控股权造成的。

News reports this week suggest SoftBank is now hatching a plan to raise ¥2trn by floating 30% of its Japanese telecoms business, SoftBank Corporation, on the stockmarket later this year. (The company says that listing is one of the options it is considering but no decision has yet been made.) If the IPO went ahead, it would be Japan’s largest since SoftBank’s rival, NTT DoCoMo, went public 20 years ago.

本周的一些新闻报道表示，软银目前正计划筹集2万亿日元，并在今年下半年将软银集团日本电信业务的30%股权上市。（软银表示公司上市是正在考虑的候选方案之一，但还未作出最终决定）。如果软银真地要上市，这将是自20年前软银竞争对手，日本最大的移动通信运营商NTT DoCoMo上市之后，日本股市上市规模最大的一次。

With 39m subscribers, SoftBank Corporation is the third-largest provider in Japan, catering to a quarter of the market. It is past the phase of straightforward growth. Prices came under government scrutiny in 2015, squeezing profits across the industry. SoftBank’s subscriber numbers have been flat; a new competitor, in the form of an e-commerce company, Rakuten, will further threaten market share. But the business still accounts for over two-thirds of the group’s operating profits.

软银集团有3900万电信用户，是日本第三大电信服务供应商，占据日本四分之一市场份额。它过了平稳增长的发展阶段。2015年，日本政府开始进行价格审查，使得该行业利润收缩。软银的电信用户数量一直以来平稳；新的竞争对手Rakuten电子商务公司将进一步威胁其市场份额。但电信业务对软银营业利润的贡献率仍超过三分之二。

Investors appeared to approve of the idea of a float, with SoftBank’s share price rising by 6% on the announcement. The IPO offers a way to raise capital without further straining the firm’s balance-sheet. But few expect that Mr Son will use the money actually to pay down much debt; some will probably go into topping up the Vision Fund, which has yet to close and which has raised $93bn of a planned $100bn. Mr Son has said before that he would like to run such a fund once every few years. The aim, Mr Son says, is to own bits of companies that will power the global race to develop ever more capable artificial intelligence. He has poured money into everything from driverless-vehicle technologies and e-commerce platforms to agricultural technology.

投资者似乎赞同股权入计划，而消息一经公布，软银的股价就上涨了6%。IPO作为筹资渠道，不会进一步软银的资产负债表产生压力。但几乎没有人认为孙正义会用筹集的资金来偿还债务；一些资金或许还会流入Vision Fund基金中。该基金目前还没有封仓，已筹集930亿美元，预计的1000亿美元近在咫尺。孙正义之前曾希望每隔几年便发起一个这样的基金。他表示目的在于拥有一些科技企业的股权，这些企业将助力全球竞赛，更快地研发出更精明能干的人工智能。他将大笔资金倾入各个领域，其中包括无人机、电商平台和农业科技。

Mr Son may also be hoping that floating the telecoms business shrinks the discount on SoftBank’s shares. Its market capitalisation is less than the sum of its holdings—notably its 30% stake, worth $140bn, in Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant. An IPO could make valuing the group easier, but it will remain a complicated structure. There is also a risk for minority investors in SoftBank Corporation, who could find themselves at odds with the majority-owner.

孙正义或许也希望电信业务的入市能减缓软银股票的下跌状况。电信业务的市值比其总持股价值还少——它所持有的中国电商巨头阿里巴巴公司的30%股权价值1400亿美元。IPO能更容易对软银集团估值，但软银仍将保持复杂的公司结构。对于软银集团的中小投资者来说，这也存在风险，他们可能会和多数持股人产生分歧，意见不一。

Even if investors in SoftBank approve of the idea, they will worry about whether the money will be well spent. With the Vision Fund, Mr Son is piling into a crowded tech market where valuations are frothy. And glittery though the investments may seem, not everything he touches turns to gold. His reputation as a dealmaker mainly rests on his early bet, in 1999, on Alibaba. Mr Son wants to plump the goose; shareholders can be forgiven for carefully inspecting the nest.

即使软银的投资人支持上市想法，也会担忧筹集的资金能否使用得当这一问题。凭借Vision Fund基金，孙正义正挤进拥挤不堪的科技市场，里面充满了虚高估值。尽管这些投资看上去耀眼夺目，但他并不能把所有事情都点石成金。他作为交易人的名声主要依靠1999年在阿里巴巴上下的赌注。孙正义想让天鹅看起来肥肥胖胖的；股东若想仔细检查鹅窝也无可非议。

编译：ColetteYu

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.01.18）