Governments risk wasting a golden opportunity to improve the region’s transport, sanitation and energy systems

各国政府抓住黄金机会改善交通、卫生和能源系统，甘愿冒险。

THE Transnordestina railway is supposed to carry soya beans, iron ore and other commodities from farms and mines in Brazil’s northeast to ports in Ceará and Pernambuco, and then on to markets in China. Brazil has spent more than 6bn reais ($1.8bn) on the project since work began a decade ago. But cows still amble along its unfinished tracks. In Lima and Bogotá workers can spend half as much time commuting as they do at the office. In Brito, a village on Nicaragua’s Pacific coast, there are no paved roads, electricity or running water. “It’s like we’re still living in the era of Columbus,” laments a fisherman.

Transnordestina铁路公司将把大豆、铁矿石和其他大宗商品从巴西东北部的农场和矿山运送到塞阿腊州和伯南布哥的港口，然后运往中国。10年来，巴西在该项目上投入逾60亿雷亚尔(合18亿美元)。但是牛仍然在它未完工的铁轨上漫步。在利马和波哥大，工人们要花上班的一半的时间上下班。在尼加拉瓜太平洋海岸的布里托村，没有道路、电力或自来水。“就好像我们还生活在哥伦布时代，”一位渔民感叹道。

Latin America is hobbled by its inadequate infrastructure. More than 60% of the region’s roads are unpaved, compared with 46% in emerging economies in Asia and 17% in Europe. Two-thirds of sewage is untreated. Poor sanitation and lack of clean water are the second-biggest killer of children under five years old, according to the World Health Organisation. Losses of electricity from transmission and distribution networks are among the highest in the world. Latin America spends a smaller share of GDP on infrastructure than any other region except sub-Saharan Africa (see chart).

拉美由于基础设施薄弱而步履蹒跚。该地区60%以上的道路不平整，相比之下，亚洲新兴经济体的这利情况为46%，欧洲为17%。另外有三分之二的污水未经处理。世界卫生组织(WHO)的数据显示，恶劣的卫生条件和缺乏清洁的饮用水是五岁以下儿童夭折的第二大因素。输电和配电网络的电力损耗是世界上最高的。拉丁美洲在基础设施方面的支出占GDP的比例比其他任何地区都要小(见图表)。

There are some bright spots. Chile’s roads are better than those of Belgium, New Zealand and China, according to the World Economic Forum. Uruguay’s electricity and telecoms outclass those in the United States and Canada. But in general, the quality of infrastructure is more of a drag on than a boost to Latin American economies. If the infrastructure of the region’s middle-income countries were as good as that in Turkey and Bulgaria, their growth rates would be two percentage points higher than they are, according to McKinsey, a consultancy.

积极的地方也还是有的。根据世界经济论坛的数据，智利的道路要好于比利时、新西兰和中国。乌拉圭的电力和电信行业超过了美国和加拿大。但总体而言，基础设施的质量不对拉美经济推动力，而是拖累。咨询机构麦肯锡表示，如果该地区中等收入国家的基础设施与土耳其和保加利亚的基础设施一样好，它们的经济增长率将再增加两个百分点。

Recently a window of opportunity to upgrade it opened up. Global interest rates have been unusually low, which makes it cheap to raise money to repair old infrastructure or start new projects. Market-friendly presidents have taken office in several countries, including Brazil, Argentina and Peru. They have made improving infrastructure a priority. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, Peru’s president since July 2016, promised to turn the country into a “construction camp”. Mauricio Macri, elected Argentina’s president in 2015, launched an infrastructure plan called Plan Belgrano for the country’s poorly connected north. His cabinet chief, Marcos Peña, calls it “the most ambitious in Argentina’s history”. In Colombia a promise to build rural infrastructure is part of the peace agreement between the government and the FARC, a leftist guerrilla group that had been at war with the state since 1964.

最近，有一个升级基础设施的机会。在全球利率异乎寻常地低的情况下，筹集资金修复旧的基础设施或启动新项目的成本变得很低。在巴西、阿根廷和秘鲁等国上台的领导人是市场派。他们把改善基础设施作为头等大事。自2016年7月以来，秘鲁总统佩德罗·巴勃罗·库琴斯基承诺将把该国变成一个“建设工地”。2015年当选阿根廷总统的毛里西奥•马克里启动一项名为“计划贝尔格兰诺”的基础设施计划，旨在改善该国北部地区的道路交通情况。他的幕僚长马科斯·佩纳称之为“阿根廷历史上最雄心勃勃的人”。在哥伦比亚，建设农村基础设施的承诺是政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量达成和平协议的一部分内容。哥伦比亚革命武装力量是一个左翼游击队组织，自1964年以来一直与该国政府交战。

A window closes

失去的机会

But the region’s governments have not made the most of the opportunity. A big setback was the Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation, which began as a money-laundering case in Brazil and has engulfed the governments of a dozen Latin American countries. Odebrecht, a Brazilian firm that built highways, dams, power plants and sanitation facilities across the region, admitted to paying $788m in bribes. Its money financed political campaigns, including those of Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos and Juan Carlos Varela, now Panama’s president. Mr Kuczynski has admitted that companies linked to him have taken (legal) payments from Odebrecht.

但拉美地区的各国政府并没有充分抓住这一机遇。名为“汽车清洗”的调查造成了巨大的后退。该调查始于巴西的一桩洗钱案，之后席卷了拉美12个国家政府。巴西公司Odebrecht在该地区修建了高速公路、大坝、发电厂和卫生设施，并承认贿赂了7.88亿美元。这些钱用于资助竞选活动，包括哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯和现任巴拿马总统胡安·卡洛斯·瓦雷拉。库琴斯基承认，与他有关联的一些企业从Odebrecht获得了(合法)费用。

The scandal has left a trail of unfinished projects, frightened politicians and bureaucrats, and wary bankers. A $7bn contract with Odebrecht to build a pipeline to transport natural gas from the Amazon basin across the Andes to Peru’s coast has been annulled and work has been suspended. Ruta del Sol 2, a 500km (300-mile) stretch of highway to help connect Bogotá to Colombia’s Caribbean coast, has stalled. Panama’s government cancelled a contract with Odebrecht for a $1bn hydroelectric project. Mexico’s biggest scheme, a new airport near the capital, has been plagued by corruption allegations. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the front-runner in Mexico’s presidential election, scheduled for July 1st, has threatened to scrap it.

这一丑闻造成了许多项目未能完工，让政客和官员望而却步，同时也使得银行家谨小慎微。之前与Odebrecht签订的一份70亿美元的合同，要修建一条管道，将天然气从亚马逊流域输送到秘鲁的海岸，目前已取消，工程暂停。全长500公里(300英里)，连接波哥大和哥伦比亚的加勒比海岸鲁塔德尔索尔2号公路也中止了。巴拿马政府取消了与Odebrecht的一项价值10亿美元水电项目的合同。墨西哥最大的基建项目，在首都附近修建一个新机场的项目一直受到腐败指控的困扰。7月1日，墨西哥总统选举的领跑者安德烈斯·曼纽尔·洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔威胁要废除这个合同。

Governments also worry that a rise in interest rates will raise the cost of borrowing to build infrastructure and that a reduction in corporate tax in the United States, signed into law by Donald Trump in December, will pull capital away from Latin America. They are racing to get their infrastructure plans back on track before the opportunity passes.

各国政府还担心，利率上升将提高建设基础设施建设的借贷成本，而唐纳德•特朗普去年12月签署的美国企业税削减计划将使资本从拉丁美洲撤出。在机会流失，这些国家正在努力让他们的基础设施计划重回正轨。

The biggest need, say economists, is for roads, railways, ports and urban transport to speed exports and the travels of workers. To move sugar from Jujuy in northern Argentina to Buenos Aires by rail, a journey of 1,675km, takes 22 days, as long as it takes to ship it on to Hamburg. Cargo can take two days to journey from Bogotá to Santa Marta on the Caribbean coast; then it can wait as long to pass through customs.

经济学家表示，最需要建设的是公路、铁路、港口以及推动出口和劳动力的出行城市交通。从阿根廷北部城市胡胡伊到布宜诺斯艾利斯的铁路运输糖的长度有1 675公里，需要22天的时间。这与把它运到德国汉堡的时间一样长。从波哥大到加勒比海岸的圣玛尔塔，货物需要两天的时间；然后要等很长时间通关。

A big difficulty in widening such bottlenecks is cumbersome procedures, legal hurdles and ponderous bureaucracies. A new airport near Cusco, Peru’s most popular tourist destination, was proposed in the 1970s; a contract to build it was signed in 2014 but scrapped last year. Projects often impinge on indigenous lands, which can slow things down further. Conflicts over projects cause average delays of five years, according to a study by the Inter-American Development Bank.

破除这种瓶颈状态的一大难题是繁琐程序、法律障碍和机械的官僚机构。20世纪70年代，曾有提议在秘鲁最受欢迎的旅游胜地库斯科附近建一座新机场；2014年签署了一份建造合同，但在去年取消了。项目往往会影响到原住民的土地，这种情况会让事情进展缓慢。根据泛美开发银行的一项研究，由于基建项目引发的冲突通常会致使项目时间拖长五年。

Despite low interest rates, governments cannot borrow much to pay for infrastructure. Non-financial public-sector debt rose from 30.6% of GDP in 2008 on average in Latin America to 40.4% in 2016. In Brazil it reached a record of 74.4% last year. Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru have rules that limit public spending or borrowing.

尽管利率很低，各国政府却借不到很多钱来用于基础设施建设。在拉丁美地区，非金融公共部门债务占GDP的比重平均从2008年的30.6%上升到2016年的40.4%。在巴西，该指数去年创下了74.4%的纪录。巴西、智利、哥伦比亚和秘鲁都有限制公共支出或借贷的规定。

Privacy, please

请保护隐私

So governments must form partnerships with private enterprises, says Jose Fernandez, a former assistant secretary in America’s State Department. They are no panacea. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are open to abuse by construction firms such as Odebrecht, which make low bids to secure contracts and then renegotiate them to push up the cost, often by bribing a politician or two. More than three-quarters of Latin American PPP contracts in transport have been renegotiated within about three years of signing, according to José Luis Guasch, a professor of economics at the University of California.

因此，美国国务院前助理部长Jose Fernandez表示，各国政府必须与私营企业合作。他们手中没有灵丹妙药。国家-民营企业合作(PPP)会让Odebrecht等建筑企业滥用。Odebrecht先报一个低报以获得合同，然后通常是贿赂一两个政客，再重新谈判提高成本。加州大学经济学教授何塞•路易斯•瓜斯奇表示，在大约3年的时间内，超过四分之三的拉美PPP合同都再次进行了谈判。

PPPs require competent agencies and often government guarantees, as well as sophisticated domestic financial markets. In Chile, which has strong institutions and financial markets, most roads, ports and airports are operated by private companies. In most countries private participation is a complement to, rather than a substitute for, public money, the World Bank argues. The region’s volatile politics makes investors wary. Michel Temer, Brazil’s centrist president, is dogged by scandal and will not run in the presidential election in October. Mexico’s election may bring the populist Mr López Obrador to power. In Peru congress is threatening to impeach Mr Kuczynski, who narrowly avoided impeachment once before.

政府-民营企业合作关系要求有有能力的机构以及通常有政府的担保，以及成熟的国内金融市场。在拥有强大金融机构和金融市场的智利，大多数道路、港口和机场都由私人企业经营。世界银行认为，在大多数国家，民间资本的参与是对公共资金的补充，而非替代。拉美地区动荡的政治局势让投资者变得谨慎小心。巴西中间派总统米歇尔•特梅尔丑闻缠身，将不参加在10月的总统选举。墨西哥的选举可能会使平民主义者洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔掌权。在秘鲁，国会正威胁要弹劾库津斯基，而他之前曾以微弱的优势躲过弹劾。

Not all the news is bad. One reason for cheer is that infrastructure can be less expensive than governments think. With conventional policies, South America needs to spend $23bn-24bn a year to upgrade its electricity networks, according to the World Bank. But if the region manages demand better, introduces renewable sources of energy and promotes conservation, it can cut that cost to $8bn-9bn. Freight can be sped up and made cheaper by simplifying bureaucracy and improving regulation as well as by expanding roads. Latin America’s trucking industry is now 15 times more concentrated than that of the United States, the World Bank says. Promoting competition would reduce costs.

并非所有的消息都是坏消息。有一件事值得高兴，就是基础设施的成本可能比政府想象的要低。根据世界银行的数据，按照常规政策，南美各国每年要花费230~240亿美元来更新电网。但如果该地区能更好地管理需求，引入可再生能源，并促进节能，就能将成本削减至80~90亿美元。通过简化官僚机构和改善监管以及扩建道路，能加快货运速度，降低成本。世界银行表示，拉丁美洲的卡车运输业目前的集中度是美国的15倍。促进竞争度会降低成本。

A second source of encouragement is China. Its banks invest more in Latin America’s infrastructure than the World Bank and IDB combined, according to David Dollar of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington. Last year Chinese companies invested at least $21bn in Brazil, not least in power plants and ports. Bolivia has a $10bn Chinese credit line to spend on motorways and hydroelectric dams. China has agreed to build two nuclear-power plants in Argentina. But some Chinese ideas, like a railway through the Amazon and a canal through Nicaragua to rival the Panama canal, may never materialise.

第二个激励因素是中国。位于美国华盛顿的智库布鲁金斯学会的戴维•道乐表示，中国的银行机构在拉美基础设施方面的投资超过了世界银行和IDB的总和。去年，中国企业在巴西投资了至少210亿美元，尤其是在发电厂和港口。玻利维亚有100亿美元的中国贷款，用于修建高速公路和水电站。中国同意在阿根廷建造两座核电站。但一些中国的想法可能永远不会实现，比如一条穿过亚马逊河的铁路，一条穿越尼加拉瓜的运河，与巴拿马运河相匹敌。

Latin American countries may be learning from their mistakes. The scandals are changing how business is done. Companies are increasing radically the number of compliance officers, says Brian Winter, vice-president for policy at the Americas Society and the Council of the Americas. New laws seek to bring more transparency and strike a balance between discouraging corruption and chilling investment. Legislation in Peru, for example, exempts from penalties firms that co-operate with anti-corruption investigators.

拉美国家可能正在从他们的错误中汲取教训。政治丑闻正在改变企业的经营方式。美洲协会和美洲理事会负责政策的副会长布赖恩•温特表示，企业正在从大量地增加合规官员的数量。新法律寻求提高透明度，在抑制腐败和投资降温之间取得平衡。例如，秘鲁的立法豁免了与反腐败调查人员合作的处罚企业。

Some countries, including Colombia and Peru, have passed laws that make it harder to renegotiate PPPs. Brazil’s plan for 34 partnerships in roads, ports and other projects seeks to reduce red tape by making sure that they have environmental licences before their details are announced.

哥伦比亚和秘鲁等国家通过了一些法律，使得PPPs项目重新谈判变得更加困难。巴西计划在道路、港口和其他项目中建立34个合作伙伴关系，要减少繁文缛节，确保在公布细节之前获得环境许可。

Such reforms improve the chances that Latin America’s president-builders will eventually realise their ambitions. Repairers are at work on the rail line through Jujuy. Peru’s government hopes to find new investors in the gas pipeline this year. With the right policies, honestly executed, rolling stock, rather than livestock, could someday glide along the tracks of the Transnordestina railway.

这些改革提高了拉丁美洲的“建设派”领导人最终实现他们的宏伟蓝图的机会。铁路维修人员正在胡胡伊城市的铁路线上工作。秘鲁政府希望今年能在天然气管道中找到新投资者。有了正确的政策，实实在在地执行，终有一天沿着铁路的轨道行进的会是火车，而不是牲畜。

编译： Susie1214912524

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2018.03.10）