THE train north from Cairo winds through the lush fields and meandering canals of the Nile Delta, before chugging into Alexandria. The scenery is pleasant on a 180km journey that can drag on for more than four hours. It is slow enough that EgyptAir offers flights on the same route.

火车从北部开罗穿过郁郁葱葱的田野和蜿蜒的尼罗河三角洲运河进入亚历山大。在这180公里的旅程中，风景宜人，但耗时4个多小时。因为火车速度太慢了，埃及航空提供了相同线路的航班。

Egypt’s state-owned, 6,700km rail network, the oldest in Africa, has seen better days. Stations are dingy; trains are dangerous and often delayed. In August 41 people were killed in one collision. It was the deadliest crash since 2012, but smaller ones are common, with over 1,200 last year alone. (Britain’s rail network, with three times as many passengers, saw about 750.)

埃及国有铁路网有6,700公里长，也是非洲历史最古老的铁路网，曾经辉煌过。车站昏暗不明，火车不安全，经常延误。8月，有41人在一次火车相撞事故中丧生，是自2012以来最严重的撞车事故；另外小事故也不断，仅去年就有1,200多起。（英国铁路网的乘客数量是其三倍，只有大约750起起）。

Days after the accident the transport minister said that he would bring in the private sector to improve quality and safety. His ministry is drafting a law to allow private firms to run trains and stations. If it passes, it would be the clearest sign yet that Egypt is serious about reforming its top-heavy economy.

事故发生后的几天，埃及交通部长称将引入民营企业，提升行业质量和安全。交通部正在起草一项允许民营企业经营火车和车站的法律。 如果得以通过，那么埃及是在以严肃的态度对头重脚轻经济进行改革的最好迹象。

The state has played an outsized role in business since the coup in 1952 that created the modern republic. It ran factories, banks, utilities and even newspaper publishing houses. At one point more than half of Egypt’s industrial production and 90% of its banking revenue came from the public sector. This socialised economy helped create an urban middle class. But by the 1970s it had become bloated and inefficient. Anwar Sadat, then president, had limited success encouraging private investment with his infitah (“openness”) policy.

埃及在1952年政变后创建现代共和国，政府发挥了巨大的作用。 工厂、银行、公用设备甚至出版社都由国家经营。埃及一半以上的工业生产和百分之九十的金融收入都来自公共部门。这种社会主义化经济曾创造出了一个中产阶级。可是，到了20世纪70年代，埃及经济变得低效，臃肿不堪。 当时的总统安华·萨达特（Anwar Sadat）鼓励私人投资，宣传他的“开放”政策。

His successor, Hosni Mubarak, oversaw a real shift. In 1991 his government picked 314 public companies to privatise. They employed 1m people and generated more than 60bn Egyptian pounds (then $21.4bn) in annual revenue, about 15% of GDP. Within ten years the state had sold more than half, including soft-drink bottlers to Coca-Cola and Pepsi, and a cement factory to Lafarge, a French industrial giant. A study in 2002 for the American government found that these early sales increased productivity at little cost to employment.

他的继任者胡斯尼·穆巴拉克（Hosni Mubarak）实现了真正的经济转型。1991年，他的政府挑选出314家国有企业实行私有化。他们雇用了100万人，年收入超过600亿埃及镑（约合214亿美元），约占国内生产总值的15％。 在十年时间内，埃及出售了包括软饮企业在内的一半瓶装企业给可口可乐和百事可乐，并将水泥厂卖给法国工业巨头拉法基。2002年一项美国政府支持的研究发现，这些此前出售的企业以低成本方式提升了生产率。

By the time Egyptians overthrew Mr Mubarak in 2011, though, privatisation had become synonymous with corruption and job losses. Most notorious was Ahmed Ezz, who bought a public steel company and soon cornered the market. Then he became an influential MP. Critics accused Mr Ezz of using his position to protect a near-monopoly, though the government dismissed two cases against him. In 2006 Mr Mubarak sold a chain of department stores called Omar Effendi. The shops were crumbling but sat on valuable real estate. The investment ministry valued the chain at 1.1bn pounds (then $210m). The Saudi buyer paid half that price, and promptly pushed thousands of employees into early retirement. An Egyptian court later overturned the sale, one of several re-nationalisations that followed the revolution of 2011. The privatisation scheme was halted.

在2011年穆巴拉克政府被推翻时，私有化成为了腐败和失业的代名词。最臭名昭着的是艾哈麦德·埃兹，购买了一家国有钢铁公司，很快垄断了市场。之后，他成为了一名颇有影响力的议员。有批评人士仍指责埃兹先近乎垄断了钢铁行业，埃及政府却驳回了两起针对他的指控案件。2006年，穆巴拉克出售了Omar Effendi连锁百货公司。虽然百化商店濒临破产， 却坐落在黄金地段。埃及开发部对连锁百货估值11亿埃及磅（当时的2.1亿美元）。沙特的买家花了一半的价钱收购，随即让数千名员工提前退休。后来，埃及一法院裁定出售行为不合规，成为2011年之后的一次国有化行动。埃及私有化计划中止。

Despite forecast GDP growth of 3.5% in 2017, the government badly needs cash. The budget deficit was 10.9% of GDP for the year ending in June, most of which went on paying interest on government debt. So the sale of state assets is set to resume. The government has hired three banks, both local and foreign, to sell part of its stake in ENPPI, an oil company. That could bring in up to $150m. It also wants to offload shares in Banque du Caire, the third-largest state-owned bank. It hopes to raise about $10bn from such sales over the next three years.

尽管2017年埃及GDP预计会增长3.5％，政府依然缺少资金。截至6月，埃及财政赤字超过GDP的10.9％，其中大部分是用规范支付政府债务的利息。因此，埃及决定再次出售国有资产。埃及政府雇佣了三家本国及国外银行，出售手中石油公司ENPPI的股权，估值可达到1.5亿美元。 此外，埃及政府还想出售第三大国有银行卡莱尔银行的股权。预期在未来三年内，出售国有资产能募集约100亿美元。

Last year Egypt allowed its currency to float in order to obtain a $12bn loan from the IMF. The exchange rate plummeted from around nine to the dollar to nearly 18. Foreign remittances, a big source of hard currency, are up sharply in the local currency. The tourism industry, which once employed more than one in ten Egyptians, is slowly reviving as foreigners snap up cheap hotel bargains. Visitor numbers rose by 54% in the first seven months of 2017, compared with the same period last year, and tourism revenues jumped by 170% (both still far below their 2010 peaks).

2016年，埃及允许其货币浮动，以此为条件从国际货币基金组织获得120亿美元贷款。埃及的汇率从9美元左右下跌到近18美元。作为埃及外汇储备重要来源的外汇汇入能汇换更多的本地货币。随着自国外游客获得更为便宜的酒店价格，一度占到10%的就业数量埃及旅游业正在慢慢复苏。2017年前七个月，旅客人数比去年同期上升了54％，旅游收入增长了170％（两项仍远低于2010年的峰值）。

No room for complacency

不容丝毫倦怠

That said, economists reckon much of the recent growth is thanks to loose fiscal and monetary policy. Government debt has risen to 130% of GDP. The central bank is printing money at an alarming clip to fund the deficit. The broad measure of money supply grew by 39% over the past year, which drove galloping inflation. The official rate is 33%, which probably understates reality, and food prices are rising even faster.

即便如此，经济学家认为近期的增长很大程度上是宽松的财政和货币政策造成的。政府背负的债务上升至国内生产总值的130％。中央银行正在以惊人的速度印制钞票来弥补财政赤字。过去的一年的货币供应量增长了39％，导致通货膨胀。法定汇率为33％，可能比实际数字要低，而且食品价格上涨得更快。

Salaries and pensions have not kept pace. Even the middle classes are struggling. Any attempt to privatise public services would be controversial. The railways raised fares in 2015; Egyptians fear private operators would hike them further.

薪金和养老金的发放也没有跟上步伐。即使是处于中产阶级生活艰难。所有想要对公共服务私有化的计划都是会引发争议。埃及铁路在2015年上调票价；埃及人民担心私营经营者会进一步上调价格。

The companies marked for sale, therefore, are mostly in the banking and energy sectors, which have little direct impact on most Egyptians. The government is offering only minority stakes, limiting buyers’ ability to carry out restructuring. It will sell only about a quarter of ENPPI, which is healthy and well-managed, with 19% growth in profits, reaching $64m last year.

因此，准备出售企业主要在银行和能源行业，因为它们对大多数埃及人几乎没有直接的影响。政府将会出售少量股权，限制了买方重组的能力。政府将出售NPPI石油公司的四分之一的股权，而且该公司的运营和管理状况良好，盈利增长了19％，在去年收入6,400万美元。

Such sales may help the state’s balance-sheet. But they will not fix dismal public infrastructure and hospitals. In June a wealthy animal-lover offered the government 10m pounds to rent Giza’s grim zoo, where dead animals have been left to rot in cages, promising major investments. It declined, worried that he might raise the five-pound entry fee.

对外出售股票可能会减轻埃及政府负债压力，但是，这无法改善埃及落后的基础设施和医疗条件。六月，一位富有的动物爱好者付给政府1000万埃及镑租金，用以租用吉萨动物园并承认投大量的资金。这个动物园条件恶劣，动物尸体腐烂在笼子里，无人问津。然而，政府担心他会借此提高动物园原本五埃及镑的票价，拒绝了他的投资。

编译：马佳艺

审校：靳婷

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人