ON NOVEMBER 8th 2016, Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, stunned its 1.3bn people by announcing that most banknotes would soon become worthless. Indians then queued for weeks on end to exchange or deposit their banned money at banks. The comfort for the poor was that the greedy, tax-dodging rich would suffer more, as they struggled to launder their suitcases full of cash by year-end.

2016年11月8日，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）宣布大多数印度卢比纸币将会作废，一时震惊13亿国民。随后截止期前几周里，印度人蜂拥排队去换掉他们手中即将作废纸币或是存入银行。让穷人们感到安慰的是，那些贪得无厌的，偷税漏税富人们可能遭受更大的损失，因为要想尽一切办法在年底前将满箱满箱的钱洗白。

Not so. A report from the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on August 30th suggests that of the 15.4trn rupees ($241bn) withdrawn—roughly 86% of all banknotes by value—15.3trn rupees, or 99% of them, have been accounted for. Either the “black money” never existed or, more likely, the hoarders found a way of making it legitimate.

然而，现实并非如此。8月30日，印度中央银行印度储蓄银行（Reserve Bank of India）表示，预期回收的15.4万亿卢比（约1.58万亿人民币）——约占所有纸币价值的86%——中，已回收了其中的99%的15.3万亿卢比（约1.57万亿人民币）。“黑钱”要么根本就不存在，要么就是贮藏者找到了一种方法将其合法化，后者的可能性更大。

Defenders of the scheme say it is merely one plank of a wider fight against informal economic activity and corruption. Banks have enjoyed an influx of cash. Digital payments are up (from a low base), as issuance of replacement notes has not caught up with the pre-withdrawal peak (see chart).

该计划的捍卫者称，这只是在更大范围内对非正规经济活动和腐败现象展开斗争的一部分。有大量现金涌入了银行。由于替代纸币的发行与取出前的峰值，（原本基数比较低的）数字支付出现增长情况 。

Officials once privately salivated in hope that maybe a quarter of the money, if not more, would remain in the shadows. An edict to the central-bank governor to renege on his promise to “pay the bearer” of unreturned, demonetised notes fuelled social-media rumours that this could finance a one-off dividend to be dished out to all Indians.

官员们私下里期望，也许最多有四分之一的钱在黑市流通。印度央行行长曾颁布一法令，收回此前会对未退回纸币而受损“的民众作出补偿”的承诺，以至于社交媒体上纷纷传言，印度央行可能对全体印度人民一次性支付所有利息。

In fact, not much more than 100 rupees a person is available. The RBI has released the figure only now, claiming, improbably, that it needed to count the cash in its tills. Its reputation for independence and competence has been dented. So has national pride: demonetisation has pared growth and handed back to China India’s coveted crown of being world’s fastest-growing large economy.

事实上，在印度，平均每人拥有纸币不到100卢比。令人难以置信的是，只到现在央行才公布数字，声称需要在银行柜台上核对现金数额。这造成印度经济在独立性和竞争力方面的声誉受损，还消弱了印度的民族自豪感：印度卢比的停止流通行为不仅打击了印度经济发展，还将印度一直渴望成为世界上经济增长速度最快的主要经济体王冠拱手还给了中国。

编译：卢语欣

审校：张思琦

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人